Global trade is expected to slow down in 2025

Firstly, in terms of overall growth rate, the global trade growth rate is expected to slow down. HSBC predicts that the growth rate of global exports of goods and services may decline to 1.9% by 2025, reflecting the pressure on global trade growth. At the same time, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) also predicted that the global economic growth in 2024 and 2025 would be 3.2%, lower than the growth hub before the COVID-19 epidemic, indicating that the global economy still faces certain downward pressure, which will also indirectly affect the performance of global trade.

Secondly, trade wars and tariff policies will have a profound impact on global trade. Alexander Filanchuk, Chief Researcher at the Russian Academy of National Economy and State Administration, stated that Trump’s push for import tariffs will lead to a global trade brake and exacerbate market fragmentation. He predicts that the increase in US import tariffs will trigger a new wave of protectionism in other countries, although the impact of these measures may not fully manifest until 2026. In addition, the threat of imposing high tariffs on China after Trump’s return to office may also have significant impacts on Sino US trade and the global trade landscape.

Furthermore, the global trade payment system will undergo changes. As more and more countries face the risk of sanctions and trade barriers continue to increase, the role of the US dollar will gradually weaken in 2025. However, the US dollar will still play an important role in global trade payments, but various regional alternatives (such as settlement in local currency or digital currency) will gradually emerge, which is a manifestation of global trade fragmentation.

Finally, the position of emerging economies in global trade will gradually increase. China has been making efforts to expand into emerging economies such as ASEAN, Africa, Latin America, and Russia to offset the uncertainty risks brought by changes in traditional markets. It is expected that by 2025, global trade will show a moderate recovery to a certain extent, especially emerging economies will make greater efforts to promote trade development, which is conducive to China and other countries continuing to promote the diversification of trading partners.